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FOND DU LAC – It’s an off day for the NHL between the end of the regular season and the start of the Stanley Cup tourney. I have been contemplating my picks for the past few days, taking a look at each team’s strengths and weaknesses and I am ready to place my bracket into the NHL bracket challenge. 

For starters, what do I look for when making my picks? 

First I decide who has the best goaltending in the league at this point and who plays the best team defense. Then I’ll take a look at special teams play, and then I’ll examine team offense. 

I’ll consider some intangibles and team histories between one another, coaching matchups and how the teams played down the stretch. By then I’m ready to roll. 

Here we go! Let’s look at the Western Conference first.

Dallas versus Vegas, the Stars have been playing like a juggernaut team of destiny down the stretch and Vegas has not. 

The Stars are superior on offense and slightly better on team defense. They also hold the advantage on the PP and PK. The Stars also can be more physical than the Knights. Stars in 6 games.

Winnipeg versus Colorado, the Avs feature the better offense, the Jets are superior on defense. Special teams slightly favor the Avs. But the Jets have the best tender in this series. 

I don’t feel the Avs tending will take them very far this year plus their road record is unimpressive. They faltered down the stretch run, but they are tough when motivated. I like The Peg here, Jets in 6 games.

Vancouver versus Nashville, both of these teams performed better than expected this season. On the other hand both played so-so down the stretch. Team offenses are a wash, the Canucks are slightly better on defense. The Canucks are a bit better on special teams. 

My two “X” factors are the Canucks Thatcher Demko in goal, and I think Nucks’ coach Rick Tocchet has an edge over Andrew Brunette on the bench. Give me Vancouver in 6 games. 

Edmonton versus Los Angeles, the Oilers have more offensive firepower than the Kings, but the King’s GA for the season was superior. The Oilers have a better PP and the Kings have a better PK. 

Neither team lit it up in their L10 games and last night, the King’s tender Cam Talbot got exposed in the 3rd frame against the Blackhawks. I can easily see the Oiler superstars lighting him up. Oilers in 5 games.

 Here are my thoughts on the Eastern Conference.

Florida versus Tampa Bay, this is one of those rivalries where stats and history have little to no meaning. That makes it a hard series to pick. Both clubs have goaltenders who are among the best in the world. Vasilevskiy versus Bobrovsky could be worth the price of admission alone. 

The Bolts score more but are nowhere near the Cats GA, which was the league’s best. Tampa has the better PP while their PKs are a virtual wash. Both teams have outstanding coaching. 

Is there an “X” factor here? The only one might be that the Cats hold home ice here. Florida in 7 games. 

Boston versus Toronto, the Leafs have more offensive power, but the Bruins defend better. Toronto has the better PP while the Bruins have a better PK. While I don’t view either team as possessing the goaltending to make a serious Cup run, I think the B’s are at least a bit better there. 

The coaches wash out in my opinion. Neither team was stellar down the stretch and this will be the B’s first playoff with Brad Marchand as the Captain. Can he be the difference? Bruins in 7. 

New York Rangers versus Washington, the Rangers won the Presidents Trophy as the league’s best regular season team. The Cap’s regular season was a rollercoaster of good and bad. They were a bit lucky to get in frankly. 

The Blueshirts were better on offense and defense, and are decisively better on special teams. They have the better coach in Peter Laviolette and if the Caps were to win here, it would be a major upset. Rangers in 6 games. 

Carolina versus New York Islanders, aye yi yi! This is maybe the hardest pick of all the series. Carolina has been their usual steady selves all year, while the Isles struggled and then became one of the better teams late in the season. 

The data shows the Canes to be superior on offense and defense, and on special teams too. In fact, the Isles have the worst PK in the league. They made a coaching change mid-season, got a little bump, then stepped back, but have gone 8-1-1 in their L10. In their L13 they went 10-3 with four notable wins against playoff teams. The coaches are a wash in my view and even with fewer NHL games coached I’d take Patrick Roy over Rod Brind’amour. I’d pick the Isles here, but the Canes are a heavy favorite. Canes in 7 games.    

In the second round in the West I have the Stars over the Jets and the Canucks over the Oilers. Over in the East I’ll take Florida over Boston and the Rangers over the Canes. 

In the Conference Finals in the West I have Dallas ousting Vancouver. In the East I have the Rangers eliminating Florida. And in the Stanley Cup Final I have the Dallas Stars winning their second Cup in franchise history.    

Many scribes and analysts have the Hurricanes as the odds-on favorite to win the Cup. The pre-tournament Las Vegas odds have the Canes at +650 followed by Florida at +700. Next are the Stars and Rangers with both at +800. The Avs and Oilers are at +850 with Vegas at +1100 and Boston at +1300. 

In my view the eventual winner will come from the top six of those teams, my picks notwithstanding. My other more historical opinion is that the favorites tend to not win this tournament and longshots rarely win it. 

I also know that in the last few years I haven’t been as good at prognosticating as I may have been in my younger days. For whatever it’s worth, I had a perfect “AA” bracket in the Boys State Hockey tourney this year and was good on the “A” side until the semis. 

I picked the Men’s Frozen Four this year in perfect fashion, but this playoff is an entirely different beast than all the others combined. 

The Stanley Cup is a basic war of attrition. That alone is why my picks might hold water but maybe not. That’s the one variable that can be the hardest to estimate. 

A really good team that is steeped with aging veterans on its roster might not make it through this tourney. A devastating injury could change a team’s direction in a heartbeat. 

A younger team with youthful superstars may not have the experience needed to prevail. 

If every series went a full seven games you would play 28 games to hoist the greatest trophy on earth. And that is why only the toughest of the tough win it. Let’s Play Hockey! PEACE