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“But we can be thankful and tranquil and proud
For man’s been endowed with a 
mushroom-shaped cloud
And we know for certain that some lovely day
Someone will set the spark off
And we will all be blown away.”
This is from the “Merry Minuet,” a satirical, dark humor song with a bouncy, happy melody. It   was written by Sheldon Harnick in 1955 and performed by the Kingston Trio (available online).

“...these hideous devices unnecessarily prolonged and intensified the Cold War... Deterrence was a formula for disaster. We escaped disaster by the grace of God.” Gen. George Lee Butler, USAF (Ret.) former commander of U.S. nuclear forces. 

Donald Trump recently declared a major change in U.S. nuclear weapons policy. With his usual flair for fact-free, confusing, reckless, norm-breaking social media posts, he announced on Truth Social that he had ordered the “Department of War” to “immediately” begin “...testing our Nuclear Weapons...” In a later statement he said, “I see them [Russia and China] testing, and I say, ‘Well if they’re going to test I guess we have to test.’” 

This childish tit-for-tat behavior is not quite setting “the spark off,” but it is reckless, irrational and will increase tensions with Russia and China.
Trump’s social media post was not factually accurate. Russia and China have not been testing their nuclear weapons and have not done so since a voluntary moratorium (initiated by Russia) began in the early 1990s. There have been tests of nuclear capable missiles by all sides but not explosive tests of the warheads. Trump seems to be confused or ignorant of the differences. 

Numerous nuclear weapons and foreign policy experts are criticizing this action as unnecessary and destabilizing to the fragile nuclear weapons international order. 

Corey Hinderstein, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for Nuclear Peace, says, “I think a decision to resume nuclear testing would be extremely dangerous and would do more to benefit our adversaries than the United States.” 

Nuclear weapons expert Hans Kristensen with the Federation of American Scientists, says  regarding Trumps’ post “It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong.“
Thomas M. Nichols, former professor at the U.S. Naval War College, and author of “No Use: Nuclear Weapons and U.S. National Security,” wrote in an article in the Atlantic, “Almost none of [Trump’s post] is right...The fact that Trump says the U.S. will soon start nuclear tests would essentially give permission to Russia and China to do the same, setting off a dangerous race to the bottom. Neither nation has conducted a confirmed nuclear weapons test since the 1990s.”

Another fact Trump does not know (or care about) is that testing of nuclear warheads is not needed for maintaining the arsenal or protecting national security. Don Haynes is a nuclear weapons scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory. In a 2024 interview with NPR Haynes said regarding nuclear detonation tests, “...our assessment is that there are no system questions that would be answered by a test, that would be worth the expense and the effort and the time,” 

Nichols agrees and wrote in the Atlantic, “Resuming nuclear testing is a terrible idea, not only because it would undermine America’s long-standing commitment to restraining a global arms race, but because detonating warheads to see if they actually work hasn’t been necessary in a very long time...Nuclear tests don’t make much sense for U.S. national security, but they’re a great way to raise international tensions.”

For historical perspective, a Google AI summary tells us, “During the Cold War, the United States conducted the most nuclear explosive tests (1,030), followed by the Soviet Union (715), France (210), and China and the United Kingdom (45 each). India, Pakistan, and North Korea also conducted a smaller number of tests.”

Pavel Devyatkin is an American, of Russian decsent, who teaches at the Higher School of Economics (a major Russian university) and is a foreign relations scholar at the Arctic Institute (in Washington, DC.) and with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He has written, “...American scientists can now use advanced computer modeling to check if the bombs still work without explosive testing...[Trump’s] decision lacks technical justification and appears solely driven by geopolitical posturing.” 

He believes Trump is using an “escalate to deescalate” bargaining tactic. But, he writes, “resuming nuclear testing isn’t just a bargaining chip. It’s a gamble that risks undoing decades of restraint, and the world could be a lot less stable because of it.”

Clearly nuclear weapons should not be used for geopolitical posturing. The danger of, and horrific consequences of a mistake, misunderstanding or miscalculation, are simply to great for brinkmanship. 
To be fair, the insane U.S. nuclear policy has been bipartisan for 80 years. Obama kicked off the current surge in the nuclear arms race with a $2 trillion modernization program. Biden continued the madness.
With nuclear weapons there can be no good outcomes, only wasted resources, illness, environmental damage and a world of fear and insecurity. As General Butler once said, “There is no security in nuclear weapons. It is a fool’s game...” 

Unfortunately Trump doesn’t understand the dangers of nuclear weapons nor does he care about the consequences. So as he cuts billions in necessary public services, this unnecessary testing will cost billions and result in a world less safe from nuclear disaster. 

One wonders just what Trump is trying to accomplish with this nuclear testing foolishness. Maybe it is just more arrogant diarrhea of the mouth intended to keep his name in the morning news. It is unclear what is he trying to “negotiate.” The nuclear “deal” that is needed – the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) –.has a already been negotiated and signed by 95 nations. Rather than destabilizing the world by instigating new testing and and increasing nuclear tensions, perhaps Trump should order the State Department to sign TPNW. If he pressured the other eight nuclear weapons countries to sign and began the negotiations to implement the treaty, he would be a real peace maker. He would actually be deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize and a positive place in history. 

Unfortunately, rather than being a “deal” maker, Trump is the perfect storm of ignorant, arrogant, self serving, mendacious bad thinking and behavior. We don’t need the most incompetent president in our history messing around with nuclear weapons policy.