Impact of mass deportation on Wisconsin

Phil Anderson

Wisconsin State Senator Chris Larson 

“It’s hard to imagine Wisconsin without its immigrant heritage. Whether it’s food, festivals, religious congregations or even the very names of our communities, there are hints of the old world everywhere you turn, and our communities are all the better for it.”  Wisconsin State Senator Chris Larson 

The incoming administration has promised “on day one” to begin deporting all the illegal immigrants in the country. This appeal to the ignorance and xenophobia of many Americans worked to win the election but implementing this politically motivated action will have significant negative consequences for the economy, the federal budget and most of the American people.

“The president-elect’s mass deportation plans would crash the American economy, break up families and take a hammer to the foundations of our society by deporting nearly four percent of the entire U.S. population.” This is from congressional hearing testimony by Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the nonpartisan American Immigration Council. An Internet search will turn up numerous news articles, reports and studies, from conservative and liberal sources, that explain how the economy will be hurt by Trump’s racist agenda.  

Before the election Wisconsin Senator Chris Larson issued a report on the impact of mass deportation on Wisconsin (“Deport Ignorance Not Immigrants,” on his website). In his constituent communications, he frequently does good, factual, comprehensive reports on public issues.  

In the report Senator Larson says, “What is clear is the two biggest issues that decided [the election] were the economy and immigration. What may not be so clear, however, is just how closely linked these two issues actually are, and the sheer impossibility of instituting the kind of draconian immigration policies Donald Trump has promised without enormous harmful repercussions that affect all of us.” 

Wisconsin, like the rest of the country, was built with immigrants. In 1890 there were 519,000  foreign-born persons in Wisconsin (30% of the population). These were mostly from Europe. At the time there were no restrictions on non-Asian immigration. Today the foreign-born population is 308,000 or 5.2% of population. The national average is 14.3%. Recent Wisconsin immigrants are mostly from Latin America and Asia. 

According to Senator Larson, in Wisconsin there are about 70,000 unauthorized individuals, 6,000 DACA recipients and 28,000 households with citizen and non-citizen members (many are children with non-citizen parents). The Senator asks, “What happens to them if mass deportations become a reality...[putting] “humanitarian concerns aside...it is hard to imagine a scenario where Wisconsin (or our nation) is better off if Trump’s promised immigration policies are fully realized.” 

However, it is not hard to imagine scenarios in which Trump’s policies leave many Wisconsin residents much worse off. Clearly deporting large numbers of agricultural, food processing, factory, hospitality, service and construction workers is going to exacerbate the current labor shortages, create supply chain problems and increase inflation. The price of many goods and services (especially food) will have to rise as businesses are forced to reduce production or pay more in wages because of increasingly scarce labor. 

In the report, Senator Larson discusses three ways deportation will impact Wisconsin. They are the impact on public schools, the dairy industry and on economy of local, especially rural, communities.

The impact on schools is an issue I have not seen mentioned in any other source. Many school districts across the state already have severe financial problems. State aid for schools is based on the number of students enrolled. Obviously, deporting families with children is going to impact local schools. 

According to the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction (DPI) there were 55,000 English Language Learners (ELL) in 2024. The vast majority (about 80%) of these are native Spanish speakers. ELL is a good indicator of immigrant status. Senator Larson says there are at least 13 districts where between 15% and 33% of the student population are in ELL programs. 

Senator Larson says if mass deportation occurred, “there is a very good chance” some school districts would have to close completely and many others would suffer increased financial stress resulting in staff lay offs, increasing class sizes and cuts in subjects offered and extracurricular activities. He says, “Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of Wisconsin families would be left scrambling to find schooling for their kids, with neighboring districts suddenly expected to find space and transportation for these new arrivals.” 

Wisconsin’s dairy industry is a major, important part of the overall economy. Wisconsin has 23% of the nation’s dairy farms and the industry generates $45.6 billion of economic activity per year for Wisconsin. Close to half of all specialty cheese produced in the U.S. comes from Wisconsin. Because immigrant labor is widely used on Wisconsin dairy farms deportation threatens the dairy industry. 

There is no accurate count of how many immigrants work on Wisconsin dairy farms. It is estimated the farms with 500 or more cows employ 6,200 and smaller farms probably employ more. There are roughly 5,600 dairy farms in Wisconsin. Senator Larson says these farms  “could not stay in business without undocumented workers on their payroll.” Nationally, 79% of the U.S. milk supply comes from dairies that employ immigrant workers.

Local communities will suffer a variety of losses and economic problems. Illegal immigrants work in local small businesses and chain stores. They also spend their wages in the local economy.  Especially in rural and small town communities, any reductions in business revenue can have a severe impact on these businesses. Plus, immigrants pay taxes, especially local sales taxes. Nationally in 2022 undocumented immigrants paid $29.3 billion in state and local taxes. They paid $28 million into Social Security and Medicare (which they are not eligible to collect later) and $468 billion in federal income taxes. 

Most immigrants are doing jobs that are not wanted by other people. Immigrants are not “stealing jobs” from Americans. They are not criminals. In fact they are an essential part of the  economy. 

Senator Larson ends his report by correctly saying immigrants “...come to escape poverty, crime and war in their home countries, to make enough money to send back home to their families, or to seek prosperity as full-fledged citizens of the U.S. I see no reason why any of these goals should be thwarted by xenophobia, protectionism or misguided and expensive policies from the incoming President or his administration.”

Trump’s actions on immigration are racist, xenophobic, inhumane and simply wrong. But the “people have spoken” and now we all will have to suffer the consequences.