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For three and a half years after January 6th I was confident Donald Trump was a one and done president. 
Three months ago, as the Trump-Biden debate loomed I was seriously doubting my confidence. The day of the disastrous debate I was sure Democrats were so spooked that they would quickly recover. They did. They have had a good candidate and a close to flawless campaign. 

Even so, their flawless campaign no longer seems like a sure bet. If there is a blowout election for Trump I will consider it a terrible assault on the memory of Abraham Lincoln. I believe Harris voters will grit their teeth and accept a Harris defeat as a bitter loss. They will not bring out their NRA approved AR15s. Democrats will wait till a new generation grows up and watch to see if Trump’s increasingly demented plans turn America against the Republicans.

If the election is a blow out for Harris, Trump’s long planned January 6th do over could fizzle out but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. If the election is close Trump and his supporters will flood the courts and vote-counting houses. God knows what they will do! 

After Bush v Gore Democrats have no reason to trust the Supreme Court. After Dobbs they have good reason to be actively hostile to American justice. Anyone hoping the crisis of Donald Trump will blow over will have to endure him for another four years.

Those of you reading this after the election know how the chips are beginning to fall. 

As I compose this four days before the election Nate Silver, the polling guru, is saying he thinks Trump will win. But that is qualified. Nate says the pollsters are lying or timid or both. He also says either Trump or Harris could have a blowout election. Thanks Nate. Clear as mud – or a poll. 

A couple things have happened very recently that the polls haven’t been able to measure. If the election is as close as the unreliable pollsters tell us, these events could tilt the election toward Harris.  

The biggest of the seven swing states is Pennsylvania with 17 electoral votes. Apparently, half a million people of Puerto Rican ancestry live in the state. That is a lot more than the 11,700 votes that Donald Trump begged the Republican Governor of Georgia to find after he lost the state in 2020. 

During his presidency the most devastating hurricane in PR’s history leveled the island. Trump showed up and threw paper towels at newly homeless Puerto Ricans. 

Worse yet, he let two years of misery slip by before he sent the island appreciable federal money for repairs. I’m not Puerto Rican and that still makes me angry but I only have one vote. Puerto Ricans living in the 50 states have many more votes to cast in the states with dead heats. 

Potentially even worse for Trump are the many young voters on the Chinese ap that both Republicans and Democrats wish to shut down but don’t dare to before the election. Young voters love TikTok so no one is messing with it.  Suddenly, that’s a problem for Trump.

Today’s young voters were too young to be paying attention when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton eight long years ago. Besides that, their parents shielded them from Pussy Grab Gate. But eight years on today’s Tic Toc users are sharing the Access Hollywood tapes and listening to the pussy-grabbing Trump for the first time.  And guess what?

Teens and 20-somethings are finding Trump’s  pussy grabbing boasts as shocking as their parents did back in the day. Unlike evangelical parents 10 years ago who had a month or two to decide whether saving fetuses was more important than electing a randy President, these young voters only have four days to make a decision. 

And, unlike their parents, they are entering the baby-making stage of their lives after Donald Trump’s Supreme Court handed down the Dobb’s Decision. I imagine many of these young voters also just heard Trump tell his supporters that he loves women so much he will protect them “whether they like it or not.” 

Even a young, white, male Trump voter might find this a little distasteful.

There are more young people than Puerto Ricans who will be going to the polls. If either group breaks the way I’d expect them to it could be a blowout election.

If Trump wins my work of the last nine miserable years will not be over. My work may not be over even if he loses. I hear Pete Stauber is going to run for Governor.

Welty should really add more to lincolndemocrat.com