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TACONITE HARBOR – The National Hockey League annual trade deadline is right around the corner. It is set for Friday March 8th at 300 pm ET. As always there is abundant speculation as to who will be moved and who won't, but there isn't a great deal of chatter going on about our local club, the Minnesota Wild.
That isn't a big surprise in and of itself, but on the other hand what does that say about the roster of this team? That is a question I've been asking myself quite a bit lately as the lead-up to the deadline closes in.
Team-wise, the only assessment that can be made at this time is that the Wild is what is known as a "teaser" team. They are currently at 26-24-6 or 26-30. They have been quite a "streaky" team since the season began albeit they have played better under new Coach John Hynes. But for every handful of games they win, they'll turn around and put up an indifferent performance that only serves to spin their playoff-seeking wheels.
One publication that puts out numerical odds of playoff chances currently shows them at 19th of 32 teams with a 36% shot at getting into the dance. Tonight's Sagarin Ratings has them in the 18th spot with a 10-9 record versus the top 10 teams and a 12-19 record against the top 16 based on a 5th-ranked strength of schedule.
In examining the remaining schedule the team has 26 games left. Of those games I view 13 of them as being games where it will be a challenge for the team to come out with a win and two points. I'm not saying they couldn't win these games, I am stating that I view those tilts as difficult in circumstances for the Wild. The opposition in those games are either currently on a streak against the team or they are simply better and well above them in the standings.
After the usual win-loss "bump" for when a coaching change is made, the team went 5-9 in January. So far in February they are at 5-2 with 4 games left in the month. I see a 2-2 finish there which would give them a 7-4 month.
In these two months they had remarkable wins versus Florida, Carolina, Vegas and Vancouver. They played stink-bomb-worthy tilts against Arizona, Anaheim and Buffalo, losing all three games in head-scratching fashion.
If you are in the driver's seat as the GM of this team, are you a buyer or a seller? As of tonight the team has roughly $40k of cap space. I'm not going to dissect that. If you follow this team you know the hows and whys of that scenario already. Next season will be more of the same and perhaps even worse.
If you are a seller, you are announcing to the team and its fanbase that the playoffs might not be a possibility this season and that's a no-no in the world of owner Craig Leipold.
Why would you be a buyer? If you thought you had a chance to accomplish something in the Stanley Cup tourney, such as win a round or two you would be looking to bolster your lineup.
Recent history shows a distinct pattern of getting in with first-round failures. Of the past eight campaigns the team has reached the playoffs seven times with one DNQ (did not qualify). Of the seven exits only one went the full seven games and even though the Wild didn't advance it was the best performance of those seven appearances. They lost to the Vegas Golden Knights in what amounted to an alley fight of a game seven and they were beaten 6-2 and eliminated from the tourney.
Even if the Wild made the playoffs this year, I see no reason to believe they could prevail in a series without the hockey gods providing them a magical pathway to hockey nirvana. I am simply being a realist here.
And here is why I see them as a "teaser" type of team. After beating one of the top two teams in the league in a Monday matinee in St. Paul, (a 10-7 comeback win over Vancouver) the team had a chance to pull into a tie for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
However, in a Tuesday evening tilt at The Peg versus the Jets, the team was waxed in a 6-3 loss that belied the reality of the game. While Coach Hynes and some media opined over the things that the team did well in the game, I didn't see it. Winnipeg controlled the game from buzzer to buzzer and earned the two points.
Meanwhile, the team the Wild likely needed to catch (the St. Louis Blues) to get in the playoffs lost to Toronto at home, 2-4, and were holding the door open for the Wild. But true to this year's form, the Wild could not take advantage.
If my math and memory are correct here, this is the fourth time this season that the club could have pulled themselves into the playoff race and failed. Will they get a fifth chance? The Blues beat the Islanders tonight at home and have expanded their points lead back to four over the Wild and have the last wild card position. They have 62 points with 26 games remaining.
Nashville is tied with them at 62 points with 25 GR. Then you have Seattle at 59 points with 26 GR. Calgary has played themselves back into contention and sits at 59 points with 25 GR. The Wild brings up the rear with 58 points and 26 GR. Some standings separation has occurred. Arizona is currently at 0-9-1 in their L10 and sits a full 8 points behind the Wild. I do not see any opportunity for them to recover and get back into the race. Behind them are Anaheim, San Jose and Chicago.
So, to reference the old song from The Clash, Should I Stay or Should I Go? Personally and with full consideration given to the mindset of the owner and management of the team I guess you put on your best face, play every game as hard as you can and see what happens. I'm not bullish on the team's chances though and that takes me back to the buyer or seller question.
Of the top 50 prospective trade deals considered at this time, the highest possible trade regarding the team involves netminder Marc Andre' Fleury. He is currently the 27th-ranked possible trade. This is quite tricky though because Fleury has a full 35-year-old plus player No Move Clause and likely would only go to the sweetest of Cup contender situations. That leads to the question as to who might be interested in him. He is no longer the 20-something Flower that could stand on his head and win you big games.
The other name invoked on the top 50 list is pending UFA Brandon Duhaime at 47th. He brings you toughness and very little offense. I think Bill Guerin is going to be relegated to standing down. I see no major moves on the Wild hockey horizon. PEACE
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