Demystifying the statistics

Leaders need clear thinking in times of crisis

Gary G. Kohls, MD

In the past few weeks, I have emailed out a number of very powerful pieces that were written by very respected journalists and researchers. (See the list of three of them at the end of this piece.)

Following this flurry of postings, I received the following complaint about the length of the emailings (all of them were about the COVID-19 issue) from a fellow anti-war, anti-tyranny activist. It went something like this:

“Gary there's too much to read, with all the other stuff I feel I need to keep up with.  I wish I had more time.  But, quickly reading over the piece, the 1% figure caught my attention.  If it was likely I'd die once in every 100 times I went somewhere with the car, I'd feel that was too high of a risk to take. The coronavirus seems to fall into that 1% category, if not higher.”   

 My answer went something like this:

“Given that the entire planet seems to have been bamboozled by the endlessly repeated distortions of COVID statistics, I feel that it is my obligation to gently correct you about your understandable fear that the risk of dying from a coronavirus infection is ONE out of a HUNDRED (1%)! I suspect that most people who get their information from the Mainstream Media have the same (irrational) fear.

“Please pay attention to the following statistical facts that contradict what is being propagandized on every media outlet, including television, radio and national, regional and local print media:

“You and a multitude of others have similar, irrational, propaganda-induced fears of dying of the new epidemic (which has only affected a tiny fraction of 1 % of the population and has contributed to the killing of an even tinier percentage of the population).

“As just one example, it must be noted that only 0.1% of the population of China ever got COVID, despite well-propagandized media reports that successfully made most of us think that the entire population of China was at risk of dying.

“I sympathize with your thoughts about considering the risks of catching the virus, but I would suggest doing a more formal risk assessment calculation from the statistics that are published by the record-keepers as innately flawed as they are, given the serious evidence that there are a significant number of false negatives AND false positives with both the PCR swab testing and the serological antibody tests. In fact there is reported to be as many as 40% false negatives with the more technically difficult-to-perform (and unaffordable) coronavirus antibody tests that have not yet been approved for widespread use because none of them have been subjected to rigorous testing by the FDA.

“Here are some of the calculations that I have recently made that should be reassuring to you.

“The assortment of statistics concerning the risks of actually getting COVID as of mid-April are far less that the 1 out of a 100 that you mentioned, which if true might even make me concerned. Hint: The risks are far, far less. Read on, Gary.”

1] The reported number of COVID infections (not all lab-confirmed!) in the US (as of today) is 564,000 cases. The US has a population of 330,000,000 (330 million), which, when divided into the 564,000 calculates out (at 0.0017) which represents a minuscule percentage chance of getting infected with COVID of 0.17% (170 infections out of every 100,000 Americans).

2] The risk of dying of COVID in the US (23,000 deaths so far, again an inflated number, mainly because of the many false positive PCR tests and the actual over-counting “guesswork” involved in filling out the death certificates) is even more unlikely at 0.007% (23,000 divided by 330,000,000 equals 0.0000696, or 7 Americans dying from COVID out of every 100,000 Americans).

3] Most of this minuscule risk of dying, it must be emphasized, is borne by the frail, the chronically ill, the elderly, the malnourished, the over-medicated, the over-vaccinated, and the terminally ill patients that are vegetating, often bed-ridden, in nursing homes. etc. 

4] An important, but rarely mentioned statistic is the number of presumed COVID-19 deaths per million population of any given nation. In the US, that number, as of mid-April is 15 (per million), meaning that only 15 Americans out of every 1,000,000 have died of COVID. That means that 999,985 out of every million Americans HAVE NOT DIED from COVID.

5] To put the U.S. presumed COVID deaths per million into perspective, the number in the Scandinavian countries is in the high teens or twenties per million. Italy’s COVID deaths per million population is 218; Spain’s is 201; Germany’s is 11; Canada’s is 3; Israel’s is 3; China’s is 2 Brazil’s is 1; etc, etc!!)

6] Another important number to understand is the number of all cause deaths that occur each day in any given country, a number that has been averaged out over recent decades. As an example, 2,500 Germans die every day and 7,755 Americans die each day. Naturally, the vast majority of deaths occur in the elderly population that are mostly pre-terminally ill for one reason or another, including what happens during every one of the viral influenza pandemics that occur every year.

7] America’s All-cause Daily Death Number is 7,755 (= 2,830,690 deaths per year); India’s Daily deaths amount to 26,670 deaths; Japan’s is 3,630; Italy’s is 1,737; France’s is 1,647; Russia’s is 1,444; Canada’s is 780; Brazil’s is 920; Australia’s is 447; Sweden’s is 250; Israel’s is 122; etc, etc.

8] And, it is important to realize that the locations of deaths in America occur 60% of the time in a hospital, 20% in nursing homes and the other 20% occur at locations outside of institutions, usually at home.

9] For Minnesota (population 5,600,000), the risk of contracting COVID (total Minnesota cases, as of mid-April = 1621 cases) is a miniscule 0.00289% (1641 divided by 5,600,000 = 0.0000289). The vast majority of the cases are in high density metropolitan areas that are in the southern half of the state. 

10] My Duluth home is in St Louis County (population = 199,000). As of April 18, there are 52 cases with 8 deaths, which yields an incidence of 0.000026 (or 0.026 % chance of getting a COVID infection; that is, 26 people are infected out of every 100,000 county residents) and a death rate of 0.000042 (or a 0.004% chance of dying from COVID = 4 people dying out of every 100,000 county residents).

11] The risk of contracting COVID for those of us that live in the northern half of Minnesota is even tinier. There were zero cases Up North until mid-March, following which the numbers only gently trickled up from zero by a handful of cases each day.

12] One must keep in mind that the CDC’s Bureau of Statistics is strongly encouraging (actually ordering?) all American physicians to list “COVID” as the cause of death on discharge and death certificates of every patient that was either test-positive or simply suspected of having COVID during the hospitalization, illness or death at home or on the street. This is true even if the patient was actually a terminally-ill, Do Not Resuscitate (DNR) elderly patient who would be expected to succumb to their pre-existent cardiac, pulmonary, renal, immunologic and/or hepatic diseases that were therefore also being “treated” with large numbers of potentially toxic prescription drugs.

13] Because of the significant incidence of faulty and unapproved PCR tests, it is important to be mindful that an unknown, but significant percentage of coronavirus test-positive cases are actually false positive cases and therefore patients with common colds (or even no symptoms at all) can easily be erroneously confirmed as COVID-19! There are also known to be a certain percentage of cases of benign coronavirus illnesses, including A] cases of the common cold that can be caused by a coronavirus; B] cases of MERS or SARS-type coronavirus infections; or C] asymptomatic carriers of one of the many other non-COVID-19 strains of benign coronaviruses.

14] In Iceland’s extensive screening system, there is a 50% false positive rate in totally asymptomatic Icelanders that never developed any flu-like illnesses. Were these folks just on the verge of getting a common cold, carriers of a benign, non-COVID-19 coronavirus or was the test flawed?

15] So, I say to those of us who are fortunate enough to live in non-metropolitan areas like northern Minnesota, take a deep breath, take a walk, take a drive, go to the grocery store, exhale when passing someone on your un-masked walk, consider even giving a big hug to a fellow, un-infected, hug-compliant friend that has quarantined him- or herself for the past couple of weeks - and stop worrying so much.

16] But, don’t forget about the global elites that are mentioned in each of the powerful articles linked to above, for they may be either orchestrating this crisis or are making cunning, profitable use of it.

Some of them may deserve to be behind bars (and not just the CDC/NIH/NIAID/WHO/Gates/Rockefeller etc. entities), but also the president and his billionaire-saturated cabinet, his wealthy Dow-Jones investors, his Big Pharma, Big Bank corporate cronies on Wall Street and War Street and every other billionaire that has been happily enriched by Trump’s administration’s legislative agendas. These sociopaths are currently salivating at the thought of dividing up amongst themselves and purchasing - at deep discounted prices - the foreclosed home mortgages and failed small businesses when the dust finally settles on a destroyed economy.

You and I (and our fellow seekers after truth, peace and justice) might just be energized again in our efforts to resist the tyrannical visible and invisible governments and the assorted globalist powers-that-be, and start working to see that they don’t get re-elected and perhaps even putting some of them behind bars. 

Here are the most important articles that I have emailed out in recent weeks:

1] Peter Koenig’s powerful 3,500 word Global Research article on the COVID “crisis”: globalresearch.ca/corona-aftermath/5708875);

2] Spiro Skouras’ powerful 45 minute video on the COVID “crisis” and the New World Order: activistpost.com/2020/04/henry-kissinger-bill-gates-call-for-mass-vaccination-global-governance.html;and

3] Scott Tips’ powerful 6650 word article on the COVID “crisis” at: https://thenhf.com/2020/04/04/never-has-so-little-done-so-much-harm-to-so-many/?mc_cid=0727426e4d&mc_eid=21cd1d37e5.