Strangled by Stats, Baseball Needs to Add One

John Gilbert

One of the charming things about baseball is the fact that virtually everything is defined by creative use of statistics. Batting averages and earned-run averages are among those, and they are valid, but the sheer number of stats boggles the mind and wears out the hardiest of fans.

But the lack of a key statistic is, in my opinion, one of the key problems with the Minnesota Twins. Now, the Twins season has given adequate reason to spread the blame around to the hitting and pitching and defense. The team has stabilized somewhat, to the point that when they win, they look invincible, but when they lose, they look hopeless.

It’s interesting when you realize that Eduardo Nunez will represent the Twins at the All-Star game. Every team gets at least one, and nobody deserves it more than Nunez. While Joe Mauer has been bogged in a slump, and Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe have failed to reach acceptable performance levels all season, it is interesting to note that the optimism coming out of spring training was misplaced at best, and way off at worst.

Consider that Nunez, the team’s all-star pick with a team-leading average of .315, has been mostly at shortstop and some at third base. But coming out of spring training, he was never named among the players at ANY position. Nor was Robbie Grossman or Max Kepler, both of whom have looked impressive in the outfield. Catcher Kurt Suzuki was considered so inept at batting that the Twins also added a backup catcher. So Suzuki is hitting well, lifting his average and delivering consistently important hits, while Nunez, Grossman and Kepler all have come out of nowhere after being overlooked in training camp.

That’s all another issue, however. Let’s get back to the newly needed stat.

When Oakland beat the Twins 3-1 on Monday at Target Field, Ricky Nolasco was pitching for the Twins and clinging to a 1-0 lead into the seventh inning. Former Twin Danny Valencia led off with a double, and Khris Davis hit a grounder to short. Incomprehensibly, Valencia ran right in front of Nunez to third, so Nunez threw to third. Miguel Sano, looking good at third, had to leap off the bag to catch the carelessly high throw, and swept his tag, getting Valencia called out. Davis was safe on the fielder’s choice.

   However, the Athletics asked for a review on the play, and it was reversed – Valencia was safe. As far as I know, the scoring was never altered, and no error was charged, despite agreement that the bad throw allowed Valencia to be safe.

Stephen Vogt then hit a single, scoring Valencia to make it a 1-1 game. If an error was properly called on the previous play, the run would be unearned. No big thing, and Nolasco was pulled after a very strong game, leaving two runners on. In came Taylor Rogers from the bullpen. After a strikeout, he gave up a pop fly single to Billy Butler, loading the bases. Jake Smolinski hit a soft grounder toward third, but Rogers didn’t handle it cleanly, barely got it home, and Suzuki bobbled it before forcing the runner at home and keeping the score 1-1. That brought up Coco Crisp, and he singled to center, scoring two runs. The game ended 3-1 for Oakland, and every account simply says Nolasco pitched well, but gave up three earned runs.

My claim is that he gave up one earned run and left two on base, and Rogers allowed those “inherited runners” to score, even though one of them should have been unearned. Sure enough, the boxscore lists Nolasco as having gone 6 innings, 4 hits, 3 runs, all earned, 3 walks and 4 strikeouts, while Rogesrs went 1 inning, 2 hits, 0 runs.

That seems patently unfair, and it follows a similar pattern. It seems to me I’ve been complaining frequently about a decent starting pitching job by Nolasco, or Kyle Gibson, or Earvin Santana, only to see it undone by generous relief pitchers.

On Saturday, for example, the Twins won 5-4 and Gibson was strong for 6 innings, giving up two runs. In the seventh, A 2-out error put a runner on, a walk followed, and Ryan Pressly relieved Gibson, promptly walking Mitch Moreland to load the bases. Then Chin-Soo Choo doubled home two runs. Gibson got the victory, only his second, but the ledger shows he went 6 2/3 innings, 5 hits, 4 runs, 2 earned runs, walked 2 and struck out 6. Pressly went 1/3 inning, 1 hit, 0 runs, 1 walk. In reality, though, Pressly shouldn’t escape blamelessly when it was he who allowed the hit that scored the two “inherited” runs.

Against Texas, Santana ad a shutout until the seventh, then two runners scored, charged to him, although they were allowed as inherited runners by the bullpen.

Why should a pitcher who leaves a couple guys on base never feel comfortable that the reliever might get out of the jam without yielding the runs?

And then I spotted the interesting tidbit. In that 3-1 Oakland victory over the Twins, reliever Ryan Dull relieved and got out of trouble for starter Kendall Graveman. Turns out, that performance ran his string to 36 consecutive “inherited runners” he has left stranded – a Major League record for the start of a season.

So they DO keep that record. I just couldn’t find it, no matter how hard I’ve tried. My guess is that the Twins relievers are among the least effective when it comes to stranding inherited runners. And it shouldn’t be a secret.

In the first four games of the current Twins homestand, Twins relievers have come in with a total of six inherited runners on base. And every one of them scored, accounting for two losses!